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08 May 2008 @ 07:20 pm
Interesting news about Iran...  
Several things, in no particular order:

First, it appears that Iran is pumping more oil than there's refinery capacity for, to the point where they've chartered tankers to act as floating storage for 26 million barrels of oil. And this isn't the first time they've done it, either.

On a related note, I've been wondering why the DoD was stocking up the US strategic oil reserve, given current oil prices. Now I'm even more curious.

Second, recent-manufacture (circa 2007) Iranian heavy weapons are being found in Iraq, and the Iraqi government is none too happy about it. Worth noting is that the rocket system in question is a truck-mobile artillery MRL. That's equivalent to the US military "losing" a 155mm howitzer, and it turning up in a drug lord's arsenal in Mexico. It's a pretty major "oops", and VERY hard to explain away as "rogue elements", rather than official government policy.

Worth paying attention to is the fact that the Iraqi government is getting sick and tired of all this crap coming across the border from Iran, especially after a delegation went to Iran to politely request that the Iranians cut it out, and they came back empty handed.

Third, Iran is also stirring things up in Lebanon. Hezbollah has gone on the war path. Love the irony of this, btw. The only thing I'm wondering is when they'll start trying to drag Israel back in, for a repeat of the 2006 war.

Fourth, a really interesting set of coincidences and movements, mostly of naval assets, that might support limited operations against maritime targets towards the end of summer.

Now, bear in mind that most of this is just "interesting observations". There's nothing solid, and no real data to work with.

(h/t to Instapundit for some of this.)
 
 
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zakueins[info]zakueins on May 9th, 2008 03:34 am (UTC)
Interesting...
...tho, I hope (and suspect) that what's going on is pretty much the preparation for "okay, we tried talking...now, we're going to threaten, after we've whapped you up the side of the head a few times."

Of course, if we were building more nuclear plants here in the United States, we'd be able to scare Iran much more.
[info]chuckles48 on May 9th, 2008 03:57 am (UTC)
Re: Interesting...
You missed an interesting item: the "lease tankers to store 26 million barrels". Think about that, and how susceptible they are to being boarded, seized, and hauled back to the US as prizes... including their cargo.

;)
zakueins[info]zakueins on May 9th, 2008 04:21 am (UTC)
Re: Interesting...
I'd most certainly check them for, ah, additional surprises. Especailly of the kind that go "bang", before towing them home.

Or, they could be a bribe..."See, if you let us keep working on our, ah, peaceful nuclear project, all of these tankers are yours!"

[info]chuckles48 on May 9th, 2008 04:29 am (UTC)
Re: Interesting...
Checking for booby traps is pretty much standard procedure.
zakueins[info]zakueins on May 9th, 2008 04:33 am (UTC)
Re: Interesting...
Very true, but there's checking and there's checking. I'd suggest checking. Namely with a copy of the blueprints in hand.

"Sir, should there be a bulkhead here? It looks like steel over lead, sir."

Still...the election will determine how bad things get in the Middle East. And, who has the tankers at the end.
house_pundit[info]house_pundit on May 9th, 2008 04:32 pm (UTC)
Re: Interesting...
All your tanker are belong to us.
Boss of America[info]john_of_arabia on May 9th, 2008 12:04 pm (UTC)
I think we're going to be in a world of shit. I trust this administration about this far when it comes to actually knowing what they'redoing. Not that I mind a war, but they'll probably do it half assed again.

Interesting book you should read, "World made by hand" by James Kustler. He's a peak oil freak, but still interesting scenarios he paints.
house_pundit[info]house_pundit on May 9th, 2008 04:46 pm (UTC)
See, there's a problem with war. Read about them and they all have some pretty major fuck-ups. C'est la guerre. We're used to watching TV and movies, and we forget.

Read "An Army at Dawn" and look at how fucked up the initial US actions in Africa were. Look at some of the initial US stuff in the Pacific in WWII.

Afaik, the fuck-ups the administration has made in this war are about par for the course for other (winning side) fuck-ups in other wars. The war you contemplate is always mega rosier than the war you've got.

The worst part is, as I see from AAaD, is that while the troops are getting blooded to a certain degree, they may not be as blooded as they think they are. War just plain out sucks. It becomes wise to have one when the alternatives suck worse. And that's just the first very tough judgment call.

I suspect if Hezbollah manages to drag Israel back into a shooting war, they're going to get very different results from the ones they got last time. The Israelis have had time to replace some commanders, learn, and institutionalize the lessons. I have no idea how well they've done those things, but they have a track record for managing that learning process real well.

Iran? I suspect deciding how to deal with that is going to be Iraq's call. Personally, if I were the Iraqis, I'd send in some assassination teams to make my point to the Iranian leadership--and go for the throat--the powers behind the throne. I'm an ignorant civilian, what do I know? It's what I'd do.

There are a hell of a lot of Iraqis who are pissed as shit about losing family members or family members of friends as a result of Iran's crap. I doubt it would be difficult to find and train determined assassins who were willing to die, if necessary. While we have an executive order against assassinating foreign heads of state, afaik, nobody said anything about training assassins for allied nations. Risks in that, but I think it would be the cheapest way, in blood and treasure, to convince Iran to cut it the fuck out.

(Maybe I just have Cally on the brain.)
Boss of America[info]john_of_arabia on May 9th, 2008 05:34 pm (UTC)
Well, I've read that,and Day of Battle. If you look at the screw ups, they were focused on the military, not the political. I have no doubts about us prosecuting a war, if the generals in charge are left to do it properly.

"We're used to watching TV and movies, and we forget." Well, having been on the sharp point, I don't think I'll soon forget.

And I don't think sending in a blonde bombshell into Tehran to kill the Mullahs is allowed under Executive Order. As talented as she may be.
 
 

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